Monday, May 27, 2019

To impeach or not impeach

The sentiment of the Democrats in favor of impeachment is growing in the House of Representatives.

Trump's stonewalling of the Democrats' investigations is a main driver of the growing sentiment for impeachment.

Trump enjoys angering and taunting people and relishes fights.

Trump is goading the Democrats to impeach him.

It is unclear whether the goading is because Trump doesn't care whether he's impeached, or because Trump can't help himself, or because Trump is being strategic.

Congressional Republicans ought to want to know why Trump is goading the Democrats to impeach him.

Speaker Pelosi and many Congressional Democrats are concerned that, taking into account that the Republican controlled Senate would never vote to convict Trump, impeaching Trump could backfire, with Trump campaigning about Presidential harassment preventing him from doing the country's business, and resulting in a backlash against the Democrats and a Trump victory in 2020.

Impeachment or not seems extremely high stakes for the Democrats and for Trump and the Republicans as well.

Probably no one except Trump knows what Trump really thinks about impeachment.

There is no discernible crack in Trump's extreme self-confidence that he always wins, and no one ever beats Trump in the end.

On the other hand, it would seem that not even Trump can know with certainty how the twists and turns of an impeachment would turn out for him.

Yet Trump seems to be doing almost everything he can unnecessarily to bring on an impeachment in the House of Representatives.

Besides uncertainty about what Trump really wants, it would seem uncertain whether the Republicans desire an impeachment in the House of Representatives.

Much bluffing could be going on. Once the impeachment train gets going, there will be little chance of stopping it, and the ultimate unpredictable outcome will be whatever it turns out to be.  Anyone who is bluffing now needs to calculate realistically about their bluff.

I believe Trump is doing extreme damage to the country, and, if Trump wins in 2020, the damage will be even greater.

This means I have to think realistically about the risk of an impeachment backfiring and contributing to a Trump victory in 2020 and four more years of Trump.

My assessment is that the truth about Trump is ugly, and that ugliness will come out in an impeachment of Trump in a way that it would not come out in the 2020 election campaign if there is not an impeachment in the House of Representatives.

If, after the ugly truth about Trump comes out in an impeachment in the House of Representatives, I am willing to take my chances with the American people reelecting Trump in 2020.

As stated, I think another four years of Trump will inflict much more damage on the country, but I will accept the will of the American people after the ugliness of Trump comes out in an impeachment.

My saying the above  puts it to Republicans to be sure they are realistic with what they assess to be the ugly truth (or not ugly truth) about Trump.

I believe the truth about Trump is ugly, and that the Republicans in Alabama (where I live) cannot handle that ugly truth. They would do well to search their souls now about the ugly truth about Trump and take their chances accordingly of what an impeachment will bring.

We will see what happens.