Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Reckoning with Trump's past

[Trump's problems consist of wrongdoing from before election and wrongdoing after election. This blog entry discusses Trump's wrongdoing from before election. The blog entry Trump's conflicts of interest problem discusses Trump's wrongdoing after the election.]

Limited vetting in 2016 election of Trump's past history
In the 2016 election, there was widespread voter dissatisfaction with career politicians seeming to serve their own interests, and seeming not to care about a protracted shrinking of the middle class and deterioration in the economic lives of tens of millions of Americans.

This dissatisfaction was charged up by candidates Sanders and Trump making harsh attacks on a "rigged" political system and by Trump being especially vicious in alleging Clinton corruption.

In this political environment, Trump swept into the 2016 Presidential election with a campaign spectacle unlike anything seen before in American politics.

In the campaign Trump trashed Obama and the other Presidents as being stupid incompetents and touted that he Trump, aided by his supreme "art of the deal" business skills, could fix the country's problems that the other Presidents had failed on.

Trump's campaign spectacle was an entertainment tour de force, which received unprecedented news coverage and free advertising for Trump.

In all the publicity he got, Trump avoided serious thinking by the voters about Trump's past history and the possible consequences in their consideration of Trump as a Presidential candidate.

Trump had fame in his previous life, and there were voluminous news stories over 30 years about Trump's business and personal life.

To the extent there were bad things about Trump's past that were not in the public record, Trump knew what those bad things were, and some Trump associates also possibly knew. To the voters, these were unknowns.

In the 2016 Republican primaries, the other Republican candidates, possibly because they were cowed by Trump, did minimal attacking of Trump about his past history.

In the general election, there was also minimal attacking of Trump by Hillary Clinton about Trump's past history.

Any attacking of Trump about bad things in his past history done by the other Republican candidates or by Hillary Clinton could, as indicated, not include things that were not in the public record (or found by "oppo" research).

While Trump's business experience had great appeal to many voters, those voters probably gave little serious thought about the possibility that Trump had done nefarious things in his business career, and those could be a problem if Trump won the election and bad things came to light after Trump took office.

Risk of bad things coming out after election
The 2016 election had potentially serious adverse consequences for Trump, his supporters and the country if there were unknown bad things from Trump's past history, and, if Trump should win, those bad things came to light after the election.

Bad things from Trump's past history coming out after the election could lessen Trump's moral authority to lead the country as President and reduce the country's trust in Trump. This would be exacerbated if Trump lied and tried to cover up to keep bad things from his past coming out.

Bad things from Trump's past could be used by Trump's political opponents to attack him, and those attacks could impair Trump's ability to carry out his agenda. That would negatively affect Trump's supporters, who wanted Trump's agenda to be carried out.

The attacking of Trump by his opponents for Trump's past misdeeds would divert Trump and Congress from carrying out their functions in the operation of the Federal government. Division in the country would also increase from Trump's supporters defending Trump and his past misdeeds, and Trump's opponents attacking Trump for those past misdeeds. This increased division would be especially acute if Trump lied and tried to cover up to keep the bad things from coming out, Trump supporters supported Trump notwithstanding his lying and covering up, and Trump's opponents increased their attack about past misdeeds due to Trump's current lying and trying to cover up.

The foregoing would happen in the environment that there would be immensely more intensive and broad ranging scrutiny of Trump's past history that would be carried out by the media and by Trump's political opponents.

Trump knew of all the bad things in his past that could come to light after the election. Trump further knew of the above potentially serious adverse consequences for Trump, his supporters and the country if those bad things from Trump's past came out. Those were risks that Trump knowingly took for himself. He also took the risks for his supporters but Trump's supporters did not know of the risk that Trump took for them.

Bad things actually coming out
Bad things from Trump's past are now coming out, and the potential adverse consequences described above are now happening.

Trump can be expected to take the position that, no matter what bad things are in his past and no matter what comes out from his past, there is no recourse against him as President except for the voters to vote him out of office in 2020.

It can also be expected that such a position by Trump would be strenuously resisted by Trump's opponents, and the ensuing political battle would be exactly one of the potential adverse consequences resulting from bad things in Trump's past that come to light after the election.

As stated above, Trump, in running for President, knew of whatever bad things there were in his past and Trump further knew of the potentially serious adverse consequences for himself, his supporters and the country if those bad things from Trump's past came out. Those were risks that Trump knowingly took for himself . Trump also took the risks for his supporters and the country, but Trump's supporters and the country did not know of the risk that Trump took for them.

It can be expected that Trump will take the position that, as between himself and the country, it is the country that should bear all the costs and risk of what Trump consciously and knowingly subjected the country to, and that he Trump should be untouched by the harms he has caused for the country by his choice to run for President.

Time will tell how all of the foregoing plays out for the country.

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